Why do we need to breakeven separately?
Hybrid combines two components of revenue, so a “CPA above my FTD price” score is no longer enough. Add up the fixed portion and RevShare, then compare the result with all the campaign costs.
Formula
Hybrid revenue = confirmed FTD × fixed payout + NGR × RevShare%.
Profit = Hybrid revenue - expenses.
The break-even point occurs when the profit is zero.
illustrative example
- 40 confirmed FTD;
- a fixed portion of $35;
- NGR $5 000;
- RevShare 20%;
- $2,300.
Fixed portion: $1,400. RevShare: $1,000. Total income: $2,400. The cost overhead is only $100.
On paper, the campaign is profitable, but the stock is too small to scale confidently.
Scripts
| Script | FTD | NGR | Income | Expenses | The result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 40 | $5 000 | $2 400 | $2 300 | +$100 |
| Cost +15% | 40 | $5 000 | $2 400 | $2 645 | −$245 |
| NGR +25% | 40 | $6 250 | $2 650 | $2 300 | +$350 |
Why do we need a stock?
Traffic price, approval rate and NGR fluctuate. If the model comes out in a plus only under the ideal scenario, scaling increases the risk.
How to use a calculator
Enter your own values in Hybrid calculator And test not one "beautiful" scenario, but at least three: basic, conservative and optimistic.
What to agree on before launch
Fixed rate, RevShare, NGR, KPI, hold, cap and carryover rules. Without these parameters, the break-even point will be built on an incomplete formula.
Set the break-even point for reasons
If Hybrid goes into the red, determine what has changed: cost per confirmed FTD, number of confirmations, NGR per user or expenses. One final minus does not prompt action, and decomposition suggests.
Sensitivity to NGR
Make steps −20%, base, +20% on NGR and separately −10%, base, +10% on traffic cost. You get a small matrix of scenarios. If half of the cells are negative, the model is too fragile for aggressive scaling.
Cash flow and profit – different issues
A fixed portion can improve the cash flow before RevShare accumulates. This is useful for paid traffic, but does not mean that the final margin is automatically higher. Evaluate both indicators separately.
Post-scale recalculation
After a noticeable increase in the budget, repeat the model on the actual data. Old assumptions about NGR and approval rate may stop working as the audience grows larger.
Consider Breakeven on a Confirmed FTD
If the fixed portion is awarded only on the confirmed FTD, use this number. The Raw FTD can beautifully enhance the funnel but not participate in the actual income formula.
Separately model the RevShare delay
In Hybrid, fixed portions and percentages can become available over different time cycles. For cash-flow tables, show not only the amount, but also the expected moment of its appearance.
Condition of stopping
Write down a spending level where even a strong NGR scenario doesn't return the campaign to a plus. If the cost approaches this threshold, further scale without changing the funnel becomes unjustified.
